The US Could Be One Recession Away from a Civil War

As of late, the ever-growing animosity between the left and the right in the United States has been downright frightening.

Especially for someone like me, who has witnessed close-up how quickly social unrest can turn into something much more serious.

Of course, major crises like civil war are extremely bullish for gold.

I wish I could present this fact as “the bright side,” but I’m afraid there is no such thing when it comes to scenarios where many thousands lose their lives. However, if a major conflict breaks out, gold might become a life saver.

I recall hearing a story about the Vietnamese “boat people” once—refugees arriving in the US after having fled their homeland post-Vietnam War. Some brought bags full of paper currency, and the receiving customs officers sadly had to tell them it was worthless. However, those who had sewed a few gold coins into their clothing were able to exchange the gold for US dollars and get a head start for a new life.

We all hope that it will never get that desperate in our own home country. But it’s good to know that a stash of gold will be waiting for you when you most need it.

And if you feel like there is even the remotest possibility that it could happen here, I encourage you to stock up on your gold bullion.

I recently penned the following article for the website RiskHedge. Please don’t hesitate to share it with your friends and family.

Olivier Garret, CEO
Hard Assets Alliance

The US Could Be One Recession Away from a Civil War

By Olivier Garret

In the early 1990s, I ran an agricultural machinery business. We were manufacturing vegetable harvesters and selling modern equipment to food cooperatives in post-Soviet states.

I happened to fly to Belgrade, Yugoslavia on business in late January 1991. During my visit, there were no visible signs of the brutal civil war that would erupt just a few months later.

It Took Everyone by Surprise

Yugoslavia appeared to be a generally peaceful and friendly nation. Not one person I met appeared anxious or concerned.

There were signs of unrest in some areas of the country, but they seemed to be isolated incidents. Tensions between Serbs and Croats had already erupted in Croatia, yet people wrote them off as trivial riots in established democracies.

Some of the businesses I visited were in close proximity to the site of the Borovo Selo Battle (May 1991) and the siege of Vukovar (August–November 1991), where soon over 1,100 people would die and 500 would disappear.


Destroyed home in Vukovar, Yugoslavia, where a three-month-long siege occurred
in 1991 during the crisis.

But neither my hosts nor I had any idea of what was about to unfold.

It took only a single trigger for the tensions to break out into the most violent European conflict since WWII. In May 1991, Croatian authorities held a referendum on independence, which passed with 94% pro-secession votes. The Yugoslav government responded by declaring the secession to be illegal and unconstitutional. They then supported the Serb-controlled Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) in taking action to secure the country’s unity.

The rest is history.

Could the Same Happen in the US? 

The Balkans have a long history of ethnic and political divisions. Decades of economic mismanagement and politics imposed by communists resulted in severe economic crises, high inflation, and crippling unemployment.

Eventually, people stood up and demanded change. That gave rise to extreme political factions revolving around regional ethnic diversity. No surprise that political leadership used it as an excuse for their own mishandling of the country.

The tensions then suddenly broke out into civil war.

Today, the US is no different. This election has polarized the nation to an extent not seen for decades. Dividing the country seems to have become a pursuit of political leaders on both sides of the aisle.


Police fire pepper spray at protestors during a demonstration in Washington, DC after the
inauguration of President Donald Trump.

Some may see this as regular political discourse. But there is a lot of evidence that the nation is more divided today than it has been for decades.

Despite the (sluggish) economic recovery, a large portion of the country has been neglected for years. Those people can barely make ends meet and are pushing for change. It’s only a matter of time before the US will plunge into another recession.

What then? Will this be the trigger that could cause all hell to break loose in the US?

The Revolution Won’t Manifest Itself Until It’s Too Late

The current political divide between nationalists and globalists, progressives and “Trump supporters,” has been deepening for over a year now, and the tough stance of both sides will likely lead to more extremism. Politicians and the mainstream media will encourage discord—or even violence—for their personal gain.

Whether you are a fan of Trump or not (I am not), it is worrisome to see liberal leaders pushing their base to fight the result of a democratic election.

The biggest revolutions come by surprise. They sneak up on nations when all seems “fine.” Peace and democracy are privileges of the West—including the US—that we can’t take for granted.

Especially when things go sour in the coming recession.

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