105 years ago, American financier J.P. Morgan testified before Congress. When asked if the control of credit involved a control of money, Morgan responded by saying, “Not always. [Credit] is an evidence of banking, but [credit] is not the money itself. Money is gold, and nothing else.”

Although they are not the same, “money” and “credit” are used interchangeably in our vocabulary today. Given the massive credit expansion over the past four decades, understanding the difference between the two has never been more important.

Gold ETFs, such as the GLD ETF, are rising in popularity due to their convenience. They’re easy to trade, there’s no need to store anything, and no one is going to break into your house to steal your GLD shares.

But there are a lot of hidden dangers inherent in the structure and operation of gold ETFs that few investors are aware of—and these risks are more pronounced than ever, as the threat of another financial crisis is always around the corner.

Considering the public’s waning trust in the banking system, many investors find themselves wondering how GLD stacks up to owning the real thing. When you look at both assets more closely, it’s clear that gold ETFs and gold bullion are very different investments.

In 1978, one year after taking control of impoverished China, Deng Xiaoping declared “to get rich is glorious.” Since Deng’s declaration, China’s per-capita GDP has grown by over 5,000%.

China is without question the biggest economic success story in recent history. However, rapid growth has come at a cost. China’s total debt/GDP ratio is now a staggering 277%—and the credit expansion is showing no sign of slowing. New bank loans in 2016 totaled $1.84 trillion—8% above the previous record.

Although the economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, the debt is causing a host of problems in China.

Gold may have ended 2016 on a negative note, but the yellow metal is now up 7% since January. A big contributor to its rise is the large inflows into gold exchange-traded fund (ETF’s). In 2016, inflows into gold ETF’s were the second highest on record and accounted for 34% of total investment demand.

With inflows showing continued strength in 2017, why should investors avoid gold ETF’s?

Consumers of financial news will hear the word “risk” thrown around a lot. We hear of “risk-off” moves and “risk-on” days. Although used amply, it’s rarely—if ever—quantified.

As understanding risk is crucial to making informed investment decisions, how can it be objectively measured?

When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December—and then laid out a plan to do so three more times in 2017—theory suggested gold should fall. As gold is a non-yielding asset, the cost of holding it increases as rates rise. However, theory doesn’t always convert into practice.

Since the Fed’s decision, gold is up 7.5%—and it’s no anomaly.

Here’s why.

In December, we argued gold’s post-election decline didn’t reflect its fundamentals and that now could be a good time to add some to your portfolio. It just so happened that shortly after, the price began rising.

The yellow metal is up almost 8% since the beginning of the year—and the outlook for 2017 is bright. Net bets on higher future prices have almost doubled since January. Assets held by gold ETFs are up 34% from their December lows.

Given its recent surge, is gold still a “buy?”

A key pillar of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and now policy formation, is an “America First” approach. So far, this has entailed much discussion around negotiating more favorable trade deals, withdrawing from possible participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, citing potential currency manipulators, and construction of a wall along the Mexican border, to name a few.

While it will take months, and maybe even years for his agenda to play out, a key outcome for investors will be the direction of the US dollar. Still the world’s reserve currency, billions of dollars in transactions are settled in USD every day—including for most commodities.

An often cited negative about gold is the inability for investors to value it, unlike traditional investments such as stocks and bonds.

A company’s revenues and earnings can be forecast to arrive at a valuation multiple. A bond’s cash flows can be discounted to come up with a present value. But since gold bullion does not produce either, investors often struggle with assigning a fair value.

Some will look at technical analysis, others fundamentals, interest rates, or expected inflation—but unfortunately there’s no correct answer, and attempting to time the market when choosing an entry point is extremely difficult.

The Fed finally raised its target interest rate and issued guidance for 2017. Trump shocked the political world and stocks seem to be making new highs daily. Investor sentiment is at two-year highs, fueled by optimism for renewed economic growth, de-regulation, and tax cuts.

Meanwhile, the mood is decidedly negative toward gold.

Mainstream media sites like Barron’s and The Financial Times are claiming the end of the recent bull run in gold and have a very bleak outlook.